That’s us. I assume you’re among those horrified at the direction of politics and culture in recent years and especially recent weeks, in the world at large and especially in America. We are a minority. We shouldn’t try to deny it, we should be adults and figure out how to deal with it.
Denialists · I’m out of patience with people who put the blame on the pollsters or the media or Big Tech, or really any third party. People generally heard what Mr Trump was offering — portrayed pretty accurately I thought — and enough of them liked it to elect him. Those who didn’t are in a minority. Quit dodging and deal.
Clearly, we the minority have failed in explaining our views. Many years ago I wrote an essay called Two Laws of Explanation. One law says that if you’re explaining something and the person you’re explaining to doesn’t get it, that’s not their problem, it’s your problem. I still believe this, absolutely.
So let’s try to figure out better explanations.
But first, a side trip into economic perception and reality.
Economists · A strong faction of progressives and macroeconomists are baffled by people being disaffected when the economy, they say, is great. Paul Krugman beats this drum all the time. Unemployment and inflation are low! Everything’s peachy! Subtext: If the population disagrees, they are fools.
I call bullshit. The evidence of homelessness is in my face wherever I go, even if there are Lamborghinis cruising past the sidewalk tents. Food banks are growing. I give a chunk of money every year to Adopt a School, which puts free cafeterias in Vancouver schools where kids are coming to school hungry. Kingston, a mid-sized mid-Canadian city, just declared an emergency because one household in three is suffering from food insecurity.
Even among those who are making it, for many it’s just barely:
… half of Canadians (50%, +8) are now $200 or less away each month from not being able to pay their bills and debt payments. This is a result of significantly more Canadians saying they are already insolvent (35%, +9) compared to last quarter. Canadians who disproportionately report being $200 or less away from insolvency continue to be women (55%, +4) but the proportion of men at risk has increased to 44%, up 13 points from last quarter.
Source: MNP Consumer Debt Index. The numbers like “+8” give the change since last quarter.
(Yes, this data is Canadian, because I am. But I can’t imagine that America is statistically any better.)
Majorities · Minorities need to study majorities closely. So let me sort them, the ones who gave Trump the election I mean, into baskets:
Stone racists who hate immigrants, especially brown ones.
Culture warriors who hate gays and trans people and so on.
Class warriors; the conventional billionaire-led Republican faction who are rich, voting for anyone they think offers lower taxes and less regulation.
People who don’t pay much attention to the news but remember that gas was cheaper when Trump was in office.
Oh wait, I forgot one: People who heard Trump say what boiled down to “The people who are running things don’t care about you and are corrupt!” This worked pretty well because far too many don’t and are. A whole lot of the people who heard this are financially stressed (see above).
Who to talk to? · Frankly, I wouldn’t bother trying to reach out to either of the first two groups. Empirically, some people are garbage. You can argue that it’s not their fault; maybe they had a shitty upbringing or just fell into the wrong fellowships. Maybe. But you can be sure that that’s not your fault. The best practice is some combination of ignoring them and defending against their attacks, politics vs politics and force versus force.
I think talking to the 1% is worthwhile. The fascist leaders are rich, but not all of the rich are fascist. Some retain much of their humanity. And presumably some are smart enough to hear an argument that on this economic path lie tumbrils and guillotines.
That leaves the people who mostly ignore the news and the ones who have just had it with the deal they’re getting from late-Capitalist society. I’m pretty sure that’s who we should be talking to, mostly.
What to say? · I’m not going to claim I know. I hear lots of suggestions…
In the New Yorker, Elizabeth Kolbert’s Does One Emotion Rule All Our Ethical Judgments? makes two points. First, fear generally trumps all other emotions. So, try phrasing your arguments in terms of the threats that fascism poses directly to the listener, rather than abstract benefits to be enjoyed by everyone in a progressive world.
Second, she points out the awesome power of anecdote: MAGA made this terrible thing happen to this actual person, identified by name and neighborhood.
On Bluesky, Mark Cuban says we need offensive hardass progressive political podcasts, and offers a sort of horrifying example that might work.
On Bloomberg (paywalled) they say that the ruling class should be terrified of a K-shaped recovery; by inference, progressives should be using that as an attack vector.
Josh Marshall has been arguing for weeks that since the enemies won the election, they have the power and have to own the results. Progressives don’t need to sweat alternative policies, they just have to highlight the downsides of encroaching fascism (there are plenty) and say “What we are for is NOT THAT!” and just keep saying it. Here’s an example.
Maybe one of these lines of attack is right. I think they’re all worth trying. And I’m pretty sure I know one ingredient that’s going to have to be part of any successful line of attack…
Be blunt · Looking back at last year’s Presidential campaign, there’s a thing that strikes me as a huge example of What Not To Do. I’m talking about Harris campaign slogan: “Opportunity Economy”. This is marketing-speak. If there’s one thing we should have learned it’s that the population as a whole — rich, poor, Black, white, queer, straight, any old gender — has learned to see through this kind of happy talk.
Basically, in Modern Capitalism, whenever, and I mean whenever without exception, whenever someone offers you an “opportunity”, they’re trying to take advantage of you. This is appallingly tone-deaf, and apparently nobody inside that campaign asked themselves the simple question “Would I actually use this language in talking to someone I care about?” Because they wouldn’t.
Be blunt. Call theft theft. Call lies lies. Call violence violence. Call ignorance ignorance. Call stupidity stupidity.
Also, talk about money a lot. Because billionaires are unpopular.
From a good AP poll.
Don’t say anything you wouldn’t say straight-up in straight-up conversation with a real person. Don’t let any marketing or PR professionals edit the messaging. This is the kind of messaging that social media is made for.
Maybe I’m oversimplifying, but I don’t think so.
Comment feed for ongoing:
From: Stephen (Jan 25 2025, at 17:54)
> The evidence of homelessness is in my face wherever I go
I saw an analysis of how a rising economy is compatible with rising homelessness in our situation. The thinking is this: many people who can't afford a place of their own live with roommates or with their parents. When their income goes up, they look to move out, which creates a new household unit. Because we're housing limited, an increase in the number of households raises competition for existing housing stock and the new households come at the expense of low-income households, pushing more people into homelessness.
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From: Jacek Kopecky (Jan 26 2025, at 15:53)
Is it attacking that we want to do? Are we at war with an implacable enemy?
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From: Len (Jan 26 2025, at 17:09)
As I recall you said Trump wouldn’t win. So did I but with no confidence. Living in the swamp one learns how swampers think. Aristotle had some pretty good insights on oligarchs. But for now I’m going to remind the coffee panic buyers why the costs are rising fast. If there is one thing we all drink in the swamp, it’s coffee. On the other hand as fast as the trump folk are making enemies around the globe there will be pros in the maddening crowd. Get some popcorn. But as you are a well connected fellow in certain circles, our intel agencies specialize in solving certain problems and haven’t lifted a finger. Why?
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From: Jonathan (Jan 27 2025, at 10:12)
Well crafted words that stirred me from my RSS feed review. My take is that the Harris campaign was a bit blunter than I expected them to be: threading the needle to avoid worrying the electoral majority while galvanizing progressive voters to the imminent danger. Maybe I simply saw what I wanted to, however. I'm afraid the only way out now is for everyone - majority and minority - to feel the side effects of the policies aimed at those who will suffer for the majority's decision. Talk - blunt and otherwise - hasn't worked for the 4 Biden years nor for the 4 previous.
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From: Ronald Pottol (Jan 27 2025, at 12:50)
The only place I really saw trying to address why the numbers said one thing and people's experience said another (rather than just yelling that the other people were wrong) was Nick Hannower's podcast Pitchfork Economics and blog at Medium, Civic Ventures. In short, things are extremely uneven. Wages are up, but that's because people switched to better jobs, not because people are getting raises. Yes, wages are over all up more than prices, but, say, diapers are up 50%, and you don't have much choice about if you buy them. So some people got hit much harder by inflation than others. Same for everything else.
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From: Luke (Jan 29 2025, at 06:36)
I really like the the truth seeking method you adopted here despite being the minority. With that been said, I feel as a Canadian Trump supporter(for this term), I am not in first 4 of the 5 baskets, maybe a bit in the last.
#1 Immigration. I am an immigrant. That does not mean I can not be a racist or it is impossible to hate myself. It just means I am not a racist whom typically will be portrayed as a white dude. My view is that current immigration system is been abused by people who is willing to tell lies, and that put the honest immigrants into disadvantage.
#2 Gay and trans. I am not one of them unfortunately this time. I don't care about this topic, at all, although I do think the money we Canadians spent on stocking tampons in male washroom can be better used to support our food banks. This talking point, IMO, is just where two sides disagree to disagree. There are more important stuff that should be talked about, but not as effective as this one in terms of serving a political agenda.
#3 Class warriors. Too bad I am not rich or to be friend with any billionaire.
#4 People don't follow news but noticed the gas price change. I hope the fact that I am commenting on you website justifies that I do follow news to some extend. I wish the gas price is higher so people would be more careful when they pondering on if they need that big pickup toy for commute.
#5 People who hated previous administration and believe Trump will do differently. I do think the Democrats disappointed a lot of people, as evident by the loss of the election. Do I believe Trump will do better? There's a chance. Will Trump screw up? At worst it would be as bad as his first term. Am I finacially stressed? I just retired at 49 and no I am comfortable.
The turning point for me, was the assassination, where I saw the dude is brave. Then the podcasts Trump did consolidated the conviction, as he appeared to be a human to me. I found the long podcast type of interview brings out what a person really looks like in person, and I found that convince me more than the grand speeches delivered on the stages.
This is just one viewpoint from the "Majority". Maybe the better way to understand the majority, is to talk with them? I do understand it is increasingly difficult to maintain a meaningful conversation between two sides, as evident in most political debates.
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From: BR (Jan 30 2025, at 20:21)
I feel one of the reasons people don't like the left is that they frequently claim that you're either with them, or you're a stupid racist sexist. This goes back at least as far as Obama, and certainly after both 2016 and 2024 elections I heard a lot of "[Clinton|Harris] lost because America isn't ready to elect a woman." It reads like an attempt to de-legitimize any concerns about the candidate/party, and it gets pretty old. Can you fault people for not voting for the party that says their concerns are fake, and really you're just a dumb racist? I mention this because your list of 5 Majorities is not so far from that, and I think in the spirit of the essay you may want to stretch your mind a bit to examine some other reasons for peoples opinions and votes.
For one, you don't have to be a "stone racist who hates immigration" to have legitimate gripes with how it was handled under Biden. My city had a homelessness crisis exacerbated by it, and there was a very direct line from that to cutting city services and increasing taxes. Perhaps we should willingly pay the cost for our fellow man, but let's at least recognize that it is a cost, there are valid complaints about it, and it's not crazy to think the feds should enforce the borders to prevent.
I would also argue the left massively overplayed its hand in pushing past the goal of a colorblind society and into explicitly race-based policies for the forseeable future. Certainly Trump thinks it's a big reason he got elected - witness the flurry of executive orders that explicitly target "woke" and DEI issues. For a longer and more, ah, colorful, take on that, check out: https://imightbewrong.substack.com/p/i-cant-believe-that-free-speech-color (that's not me, I just find it interesting).
Anyway, for the record I voted against Trump twice, and I'd do it again if (God forbid) he ran again. But that's just because Trump sucks, not because I love what the left is doing. I suspect there's a pretty big cohort with similar views, and if the left hasn't figured it out before the right manage to find a non-crazy candidate, they'll get absolutely crushed.
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From: Horatio (Feb 02 2025, at 16:14)
>Basically, in Modern Capitalism, whenever, and I mean whenever without exception, whenever someone offers you an “opportunity”, they’re trying to take advantage of you.
That quote deserves a post of its own. Do you honestly believe that? How did your opportunities work out? Pretty well, no?
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